Sunday, December 20, 2009

Mancini: managerial genius or fortunate fool?


Mark Hughes was, in unfortunate circumstances, sacked yesterday by Manchester City and replaced by Roberto Mancini. Judging by the newspaper reports and radio discussions the general consensus seems to be that this is a decision that will behoove the blue half (three-quarters??) of Manchester.

However, we are here to tell you that although clearly Mancini has been more successful than his predecessor, there is not a huge gulf in ability between him and Hughes and certainly not the difference that the press and the City brass will have you believe.

Firstly, Hughes entered management a full two years before Mancini and has managed over 300 top-level matches. That being said his formative years in management were with Wales, which may have delayed his career advancement prior to his signing with Blackburn.

He left Blackburn with an impressive 44% win rate, and a team that was well respected and tough to beat. He bought and sold well and was deserving of the City appointment.

Mancini's great success came at Internazionale, where he won 3 consecutive Serie A titles, becoming the clubs most successful manager in 30 years. However, the 2005-6 title was handed to them as a virtue of Juventus being re-assigned to Serie B following the Calciopoli scandal. Imagine the success that Chelsea could have had over last few years if Manchester United had suddenly been relegated to The Championship? Avram Grant could have been the most successful Chelsea manger of the last 30 years! That is essentially what happened in Italy. Was the title handed to him the following two years? No, but it was certainly made easier, particularly given the outstanding players in the Inter team.

To say Mancini is a bad manager would be untrue, but are his successes more circumstance that managerial brilliance? Maybe. And are these circumstances forgotten? Certainly.

City have made a bold move with this appointment, and as we understand it there is a clause in his contract that will allow the club to end relations with him at the end of the current season if things don't go well.

City, let's not forget, are a class side, packed full with some of the best players in the league. They will be a strong team for the remainder of the season no doubt. Their recent form will improve, particularly given their next eight opponents in the Premier League: Stoke, Wolves, Blackburn, Everton, Stoke, Portsmouth, Hull, Bolton. They may not drop a point until February. Every other team in the league would be jealous of this fixture schedule. It does not get any easier than this in the Premier League.

If City were indeed to go on and win these eight games (which they should), Mancini will undoubtedly be heralded as an instant hero at Eastlands, but yet again his success would be more circumstance than genius.

We may have to wait two or three years to fully understand whether or not Mancini is the real deal, and worthy of one of the most lucrative coaching contracts in world sports. Rarely will there ever be a better situation than this to walk into.

6 comments:

  1. What a load of dribble, if City win their next eight games then that is clearly an improvement on anything MH has produced so far!

    Allow me to remind you of the last so called should win games city played, Wigan 1-1, Fulham 2-2, Birmingham 0-0, Burnley 3-3, Hull 1-1, Bolton 3-3 and the win over Sunderland was hardly convincing. The games at Liverpool, Villa and Spurs (433 formation what a joke that was) our rivals for the top four spot, from nine points available we got a whole TWO!

    Anyone feeling sorry for MH because he was the right man for the job that got stuffed should wake up to themselves! However, it’s never nice when someone loses their job period! The fact remains good results = job security, bad results = P45.

    He may not have had the years that so many are taking about but how many managers have spent what he has on players? The team is his, the tactics were his, the team selection was his and the rewards that go with all that are his too! Thanks for coming, next!!!!

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  2. Rekka,

    I can't agree with your comments i'm afraid!

    Hughes was under unbelievable pressure from the board to deliver both big name signings and almost unfeasible success in a short time frame. He was very close to achieving that success and a few sloppy goals conceded in games that should have been won really wrote his obituary for him.

    Some of the players heralded by the media and fans alike have badly let Hughes down in a few crucial games. Those who were given so much responsibility and asked to deliver what they were capable of delivering, couldn't do so - i suggest you look long and hard at the likes of Adebayor, Robinho, Toure, Lescott and Bridge (all extremely talented players), before placing too much blame on Hughes.

    I assume Rekka, that you are a City fan? If so, i'm really surprised that you would be so harsh on a manager who has laid the foundations for your club to enter its most successful period in decades. Lest we forget, only three seasons ago City finished just 4 points off relegation. Now they are genuine contenders for Champions League football yet you are still not satisfied?

    I know Hughes has spent exorbitant amounts of money, but do you expect them to become a team straight away?! The very best teams in any league, or indeed in international football, take years to come together and are quietly tweaked to perfection - Sir Alex has been doing that for many years at Old Trafford and even The Special One came into control of a team that had been built over some years by Claudio Ranieri.

    The last thing City need now is a new man to come in with his own ideas and his own players. If (and a big if), Mancini can achieve some continuity and stick largely with what he has at the moment, that will be his best chance.

    Unfortunately i foresee fans like yourselves growing more and more impatient with managers, and while you do that success will become more and more elusive. Unfortunately this is just what football is like these days.

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  3. Rekka,

    Firstly, this is not a defence of Mark Hughes - I am not saying the board was wrong to sack him. This article simply seeks to point out that he is indeed experienced and that Mancini's success may have more to do with the situations he finds himself in rather than pure managerial ability.

    Mike P raises an excellent point - did you really expect this team to come together so quickly with so many new players?

    If so, then you are clearly living in a fantasy world. Remember, Alex Ferguson was almost fired at the start of his tenure at United because of a run of bad results.

    Are you happy with the Mancini appointment? Or is it merely a distraction to take your mind of why you didn't beat Bolton a few weeks ago?

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  4. Mike P,
    I respect your point of view but don’t agree with your reasoning. I think you need to stop making comparisons with MH and other managers.

    I simply do not except that a few sloppy goals are responsible for the poor run of results, more like a lot of sloppy goals.

    I fully understand that a team needs time to gel, but this goes much deeper than that. If you believe for one minute that MH is as good as or even close to the same level of managerial expertise as Sir Alex then I feel you’re seriously mistaken.

    This is about the poor tactics, weak performances and lack of ability to motivate. I think it’s safe to say that we agree on the fact that city has a defence that’s far from composite.

    I like so many other city fans are still trying to understand the sale of Dunn to Villa?

    I would also like to point out that I am in favour of stability at the club; I would embrace it whole heartedly.

    However, I strongly believe that the club got this one right. MH is an average manager nothing more; he still has a lot to learn and if I had given up over 200 mil for players I would want the best manager available not an average one.

    The board has given him every chance to show signs of improvement equal to its investment.

    I don’t subscribe to the school of thought of this team going out on to the field of play and suddenly clicking, it will be a slow but obvious process, a process I see no evidence of. It’s only thanks to the teams around us underperforming that put us in sixth place not the geniuses of the Manager.

    I will contradict myself and make just one comparison and that would be with Harry Redknapp. Been in his position for a similar amount of time, has spent a lot less money and Spurs play very well as a unit most of the time but most importantly, sound tactics, formations and player motivation are clear to see.

    I don’t know if we now have the right man now, but I’m confident that MH was not the man for the job.

    All the best for Christmas to you and yours.

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  5. Dam M,

    I fully understand the content of your article and the point you are trying to make.

    But you would need to take more than two teams out of the EPL before City are handed the title!

    I also think that put in such a simplistic way; Hull could be in with a chance.

    I think you are under selling Mancini and his achievements as a manager by suggesting his success has been down to luck?

    I don’t know if he’s the right man for the job but he does come with an impressive pedigree that is undeniably much better than MH; therefore, there is no sensible comparison to be made.

    I’m not too sure why you focused just on the Bolton game, I made mention of several games in my blogg, maybe it’s this inability to see the whole picture that underpins your comments?

    I would also like to ask, are you a city fan? I have followed city for over 30 years. In that time we have had far too many managers and most of them weren’t given a fair go but from time to time the board do get it right and this is one of those times.

    As for your article, I may not agree with it but it was interesting.

    Have a good Christmas.

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  6. "Thanks for coming, next!!!" That pretty says all you need to know about City's current incarnation.

    Thanks for a thoughtful article Dan, shame it's subtleties are lost on some. Mancini was one of Italian football's least recognised greats on the pitch in the last few decades but succeeding as a manager in English football, with crazy employers, is a big challenge. He was after all sacked by Inter after he win his third title. City fans should ask themselves why that is.

    Personally, I think he'll prove to be more Scolari than Mourinho. Here's hoping.

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